tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7479077.post4608069914706664871..comments2023-09-24T17:05:28.010+01:00Comments on David's Kingsbury blog: Teaching the babiesDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16062717140344359936noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7479077.post-92150124459553547522013-12-12T01:50:05.140+00:002013-12-12T01:50:05.140+00:00I thought I gave that reason but will make sure. I...I thought I gave that reason but will make sure. I read 3-6 months for a commercial forecast is the absolute maximum, and the uncertainty widens so much towards the end they really aren't worth as much as making alternative plans in case. As most extreme events only last a day or two (apart from the damn snow) even if you knew a hurricane was likely you couldn't cancel events just in case, and may not bother going on a holiday and nothing could happen. I can't really see a huge amount of purpose in long term forecasts as there's very little we would do in response, especially at such tenuous levels of likelihood.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062717140344359936noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7479077.post-71533381833887807602013-12-11T19:40:59.356+00:002013-12-11T19:40:59.356+00:00Good item but just a little correction. Forecastin...Good item but just a little correction. Forecasting the weather for the UK is one of the most difficult in the world because of there being a massive sea on one side and a massive and divided land area on the other side. The UK sits aside the Gulf Stream which does have slight daily variations and on the land side it is almost in the middle of a hot and cold area. It also has the Irish block which again can hold back weather patterns. I used to study weather patterns and knew two very good tv weather presenters when I lived in Norfolk in the 1970's and 80's One was for the BBC and one was for Anglia tv. You also have to factor in the solar winds etc. It is possible to give a 70% accuracy of weather predictions for about a year in most areas of the world but you have to allow the unpredicatble solar etc surges etc.,rogerhootonof Nuriootpa, south australianoreply@blogger.com