Friday, March 01, 2013

Hockey sticks rule the 2000s, except temperature


< Food prices.
Oil till 2005 >
Gold v

Fertiliser prices

Spot the odd one out. They all look damn similar don't they, but just one is not reliable, the temperature record. Unfortunately all the prices are absolutely real, as is the world population. The familiar hockey stick, which needed to both compare like with unlike (the temperatures from 1979 onwards were satellite based, land based for 50 years earlier and then proxy) and rewrite history to dispose of the little ice age and medieval warm period, both in textbooks for decades until then, in order to give the impression our temperatures had suddenly started rising. Steve McIntyre followed this up by using the computer algorithm to show whatever data was put in the same shape was guaranteed.
But the 2000s have indeed been the decade of the hockey stick economically. Are they connected? Mostly they are, and not by chance either. Bear in mind the Bilderberg Group planned to use mid-east chaos such as invading Libya and Iraq to raise the oil price artificially to $150, which has been closely reached now twice, and as can be seen the 2005 price here, already the peak of the stick is now double that in 2011. This has been engineered through wars and selective restrictions on exploration and energy taxes, nominally in the name of the environment but actually to allow the same remaining oil to be sold for around double the previous market price or more. Therefore big oil are definitely involved with climate change, as it has made their work a lot easier, gaining twice the price for the identical amount of work. Inflation causes a ripple effect, so food and fertiliser (partly oil based) follow faithfully, while gold has risen simply as the currencies have been puffed up without added production through bailouts and quantitative easing (creating cash from nowhere), meaning they become worth less per pound or dollar as there is no more production behind a greater total sum of cash. That means the money shifts to hard currency, ie commodities, with gold as king.
The final and sharpest rise which is probably the major reason behind the others is world population. As food production remains flat and oil reduces, and the people multiply logarithmically, the shareout ratio is obvious. And bear in mind in nature most sharp peaks end with a sharp fall. If this occurred for any of the prices it would be a welcome miracle, if for the population it would be a disaster.

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