Wednesday, July 21, 2010

In which the IPCC come clean

Now free of most obligations and ambitions I can look towards the next ones. My intuition is showing itself to be more and more reliable so following that now and have the routine to explain to skeptics I am following something I can't yet demonstrate but it's as if I'm picking it up remotely (which is probably the case) without the need to understand the workings.

For instance today I tracked down two links about global warming where everything I'd said was agreed with. Nothing new there you say, but one was from the head of East Anglia's CRU in 2007, and the other direct from the IPCC. To summarise the two points. The first was about 'Post-normal science', where the fear of global warming was so great they had to act without proof just in case. That's dangerous stuff in itself but the IPCC statement then pisses over the flames totally by saying "The worst case temperature scenario is that in 100 years the developing world will be over 8 times better off than they would otherwise at over 9 times better off". It goes on to say that the actual problems faced would be exactly the same weather we have now but in different places, and there would be many benefits as well. Conversely all attempts to reduce CO2 will guarantee to make us worse off so this non-normal science or whatever they call it (I'd say 'non-honest') is actually trying to prevent, er, well, nothing, with STEALING OUR MONEY. Great deal, and now they do actually admit it so (as it's not a crime if the laws have been changed to allow it) I don't have to convince anyone, they've told you all. So with the CRU admitting truth is second to policy (their exact words), while the IPCC in their little world slip out the scenario the CRU are trying to prevent is a long chain of er, benefits, and er, more weather in different places to where it is now and sometimes more frequent, that is if they can measure it and then pin any of it down to us and not natural increases etc, the bottom line being "Our money is being extracted to prevent an unprovable and unproven future scenario which the worst computer model possibility in 100 years shows that, er, nothing is going to change besides a slight possible lowering of benefits compared to otherwise"

Now that's a deal every country has either taken on board already or working to pass through their parliaments, while the twinned organisations driving this machinery have actually said straight out (ie not me or some poor scientists accused of being insane by their opponents who want to keep their slices of the cake) there's not a problem and any changes we can see can't be proved to be relevant. I no longer need to try and source anything, I just say the purpose of green taxes is to, er, collect taxes, that's it. If they need the money that badly then just say so, don't make up a whole megillah around it to divide and rule while the people too clever to fall for it are fighting with the unfortunate majority who still think whatever our rulers tell us must be true, why would they lie? I hear this every time it's on the radio or internet, as if politicians are above theft. For fuck's sake, they probably invented it!

5 comments:

Roger Hooton of Nuriootpa, South Australia said...

I am in total agreement with you. Bit what has to be pointed out is that NASA etc are finding out more and more about the way the Sun controls our weather on even an hour by hour basis.
It is a well now and accepted scientific fact the Sun is about midway through its conversion of hydrogen to helium. In about 5 billion years, its flames will be extinguished. The Sun diffuse envelope will engulf the Earth and turn it into a lifeless cinder. But BEFORE that happens the Earth's biosphere will die. The Sun gets hot as it get colder.
There is nothing humans can do to stop this. Already the Solar System is effected by radiation etc from other solar systems in our galaxy and other galaxies. these all have an effect on our weather as such does on the other planets.
Weather is such a vastly complex matter that the second by second permutations involved are far greater that all the brains of every living person and animal that has ever lived on Earth since life started.
The formation of coal, gas and oil was done by climate changes to Earth. Humans did NOT have anything to do with such formations of these now very useful products. I do wish that people, especially the politicians and the green party supporters would just stop and THINK how life has evolved and how climate change is NORMAL and can be abrupt or slow. There was NO Intelligent Designer (God) involved in the formation of us, Earth etc. The known Universe itself will in time explode and be restarted again.

Roger Hooton of Nuriootpa, South Australia said...

Space Weather Turns into an International Problem
That's the message scientists are delivering at today's International Living with a Star (ILWS) meeting in Bremen, Germany, and representatives from more than 25 of the world's most technologically-advanced nations have gathered to hear what they have to say.

"The problem is solar storms—figuring out how to predict them and stay safe from their effects," says ILWS Chairperson Lika Guhathakurta of NASA headquarters. "We need to make progress on this before the next solar maximum arrives around 2013."
The sun and Earth are separated by 93 million miles of space—a seemingly safe distance. But since the Space Age began, and especially in recent years, there has been a growing realization that 93 million miles really isn't so far apart. Spacecraft and ground-based observatories have shown that Earth is located in the sun's outer atmosphere, buffeted by solar winds and pelted by hail storms of energetic particles. Moreover, the two bodies are actually connected by invisible threads of magnetism. During "reconnection events," which typically happen several times a day, you can trace invisible lines of force all the way from Earth's poles to the surface of the sun.

"The Earth and sun are interconnected. We cannot study them separately anymore," says Guhathakurta.

A few years ago, scientists coined the term "heliophysics" to describe the emerging science of the sun-Earth system. As a nod to the importance of the topic, NASA has set up a dedicated Heliophysics Division at HQ in Washington DC, and the United Nations declared 2007 the "International Heliophysical Year" (IHY) in hopes of spurring global involvement in this new field.
Predicting solar activity is a complicated problem, akin in some ways to terrestrial weather forecasting but multiplied in difficulty by the thorny physics of solar plasma and magnetism. Predicting the sun is only half the problem, though; the other half is Earth. How our planet's magnetic field and atmosphere respond to any given solar storm is a magnetohydrodynamical riddle that top scientists struggle to understand even with the aid of Earth's most powerful supercomputers. For these reasons, it is often said that space weather forecasting lags 50 years behind its terrestrial counterpart.

"We need more data--and more ideas," says Guhathakurta.

That's why, this week, she is handing over her chairmanship of ILWS to Dr. Ji Wu of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. In addition to leading the ILWS, Wu will spend the next two years harnessing the special talents of the world's most populous country for heliophysics.

"We have many scientists and lots of fresh ideas," says Wu. "China will be able to make important contributions in this area."
Another complication is volume. Heliophysics plays out on a stage which is hundreds of millions of miles wide. Simply keeping track of what's going on is a significant challenge. NASA and other space agencies have dozens of spacecraft out there, but they are spread over an enormous volume.
ILWS (report, 200px)
A 2008 report by the National Academy of Sciences details the possible consequences of solar storms. [more]

"Imagine trying to monitor Earth's oceans with a small number of buoys. You'd miss a lot. That's the situation we're in now with the 'ocean of space,'" says Guhathakurta.
And there is a LOT more about this I could put.
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/16jul_ilws/

Roger Hooton of Nuriootpa, South Australia said...

Space Weather Turns into an International Problem July 16, 2010: Sometimes a problem is so big, one country cannot handle it alone.That's the message scientists are delivering at today's International Living with a Star (ILWS) meeting in Bremen, Germany, and representatives from more than 25 of the world's most technologically-advanced nations have gathered to hear what they have to say."The problem is solar storms—figuring out how to predict them and stay safe from their effects," says ILWS Chairperson Lika Guhathakurta of NASA headquarters. "We need to make progress on this before the next solar maximum arrives around 2013." The sun and Earth are separated by 93 million miles of space—a seemingly safe distance. But since the Space Age began, and especially in recent years, there has been a growing realization that 93 million miles really isn't so far apart. Spacecraft and ground-based observatories have shown that Earth is located in the sun's outer atmosphere, buffeted by solar winds and pelted by hail storms of energetic particles. Moreover, the two bodies are actually connected by invisible threads of magnetism. During "reconnection events," which typically happen several times a day, you can trace invisible lines of force all the way from Earth's poles to the surface of the sun."The Earth and sun are interconnected. We cannot study them separately anymore," says Guhathakurta. As a nod to the importance of the topic, NASA has set up a dedicated Heliophysics Division at HQ in Washington DC, and the United Nations declared 2007 the "International Heliophysical Year" (IHY) in hopes of spurring global involvement in this new field.
Predicting solar activity is a complicated problem, akin in some ways to terrestrial weather forecasting but multiplied in difficulty by the thorny physics of solar plasma and magnetism. Predicting the sun is only half the problem, though; the other half is Earth. How our planet's magnetic field and atmosphere respond to any given solar storm is a magnetohydrodynamical riddle that top scientists struggle to understand even with the aid of Earth's most powerful supercomputers. For these reasons, it is often said that space weather forecasting lags 50 years behind its terrestrial counterpart."We need more data--and more ideas," says Guhathakurta.That's why, this week, she is handing over her chairmanship of ILWS to Dr. Ji Wu of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. In addition to leading the ILWS, Wu will spend the next two years harnessing the special talents of the world's most populous country for heliophysics.
"We have many scientists and lots of fresh ideas," says Wu. "China will be able to make important contributions in this area."
Another complication is volume. Heliophysics plays out on a stage which is hundreds of millions of miles wide. Simply keeping track of what's going on is a significant challenge. NASA and other space agencies have dozens of spacecraft out there, but they are spread over an enormous volume.A 2008 report by the National Academy of Sciences details the possible consequences of solar storms."Imagine trying to monitor Earth's oceans with a small number of buoys. You'd miss a lot. That's the situation we're in now with the 'ocean of space,'" says Guhathakurta.
And just in time.If forecasters are correct, the solar cycle will peak during the years around 2013. And while it probably won't be the biggest peak on record, human society has never been more vulnerable. The basics of daily life—from communications to weather forecasting to financial services—depend on satellites and high-tech electronics. A 2008 report by the National Academy of Sciences warned that a century-class solar storm could cause billions in economic damage. The full link to the NASA report is too long for your blog to accept.

David said...

The more I look the more I find short cuts- admissions from the CRU itself that the science can't be proved and then IPCC reports actually listing benefits from climate change basically means they are dismantling their own structure first whatever we do. The lack of publicity is the next gap that needs to be addressed and I am doing my little bit here for a start.
That article goes against the NOAA who say the sun's variations can't explain the actual ones down here but I'm used to disagreements on all the blame now and take no notice of it.

Roger Hooton of Nuriootpa, South Australia said...

G'day David
I am surprised to see my THREE comments came out as every time I tried to post the NASA stuff I got messages saying that they were too long, so I re-did them and then I got messages saying that the NASA link was too long. So I assumed that those TWO NASA bits of mine did not go through. Thanks for posting them.
I read a lot of NASA stuff every day as I have always, for over 60 years, been interested in that stuff especially the sun. Read some interesting stuff last night about our own galaxy that has been recently been discovered by the Swinbourne Uni here in Australia.